There is no sadder thing than a young pessimist, except an old optimist - Mark Twain
Start of a new year and time to record the first open snowdrop flower. See here for last year's report and links to previous years.
I first noticed the snowdrop flowers had opened on 19th January (Photo 1) ...
Photo 1: Garden Snowdrops on 19th January 2026
... though the flowers were out and partially open on the 12th January (Photo 2) ...
Photo 2: Garden Snowdrops on 12th January 2026
According to the Woodland Trust's Nature Calendar, the time to record the first flowering date is when the petals have opened just enough to see inside the flower. This clearly was the case on January 12th (Photo 2) but it may have been a few days earlier.
For the past five years, the snowdrop 'first flowering' date has been fairly consistent (from the 12th to 14th day of the year) except for 2024 (Figure 1). What was so special about the 2024 event?
Figure 1: Day Number of the Year for First Flowering of Garden Snowdrops
Of course, the species/cultivar, soil-type and location (local and geographical) will be factors as to when the first flower opens. These factors are constant for this particular patch of snowdrops. Temperature is considered the primary driver controlling how early the snowdrop opens. Moisture (enough but not too much or too little) might be important, especially in autumn, during the root development stage.
I checked past weather data collected from my Davis Weather Station located just a few metres from the snowdrop patch. Autumn 2023 was warm with sufficient rain (i.e not drought or flood) to encourage root development. September 2023 is the warmest September in our garden since records began in 2019. Perhaps more importantly, December 2023 was also the warmest December on record (Figure 2) and would have stimulated the early appearance of snowdrop flowers in January 2024.
Figure 2:Average Monthly Winter Temperatures
Note: in Figure 2, Winter is defined as December, January and February and the three months are contiguous; i.e. December 2023, January 2024 & February 2024 are part of the same 'winter' set for 2024
Summarizing, a warm December (mean 8 ℃) is conducive to early January flowering of our garden snowdrops. Cooler temperatures in December (4 - 7 ℃) lead to flowering times in the middle of January (12th to 14th). All these dates are much earlier than the UK average (2001 - 2020) of January 26th.
And, yes, I've added this year's first flowering to Nature's Calendar.
Argumentum ad hominem (usually just referred to ad Hominiem) is a logical fallacy in which an interlocutor's character, appearance, expertise and/or manners are maligned instead of directly addressing the truth or substance of their argument. For example:
Baldrick: I have a plan
Blackadder: Is it a cunning plan?
Baldrick: Yes it is a cunning and subtle plan
Blackadder: You wouldn't recognize a subtle plan if it painted itself purple and danced naked on a harpsichord while singing "subtle plans are here again"
Rather than discussing the merits, or otherwise, of Baldrick's plan, Blackadder just attacks Baldrick's intelligence.
Ad hominem translates as 'to the person' or 'against the person' and refers to the use of a personal attack instead of addressing the argument itself. Note that simply insulting someone (e.g. Donald Trump referring to 'Sleepy Joe' or Crooked Hilary' in one of his rambling speeches) is not an ad hominem fallacy unless the name calling is meant to discredit the opponent's argument.
There are 5 common types of ad hominem fallacies:
Abusive ad hominem: insulting a personal trait or characteristic such as 'What do you know about the offside rule in football, you're just a woman'.
Circumstantial ad hominem: also known as an appeal to motive where you criticize a person's perceived bias based on their job or situation. For example: 'Of course you believe in global warming so you can just get more grant money'.
Poisoning the well: this is where you get your character assassination in early before the discussion has started. For example: 'My opponent is going to argue against renewable energy because she works for an oil company'.
Guilt by association: an assumed bias by virtue of being a member of a particualar group or association. For example: 'You are against free choice for women because of your religious beliefs' or 'Your ideology is capitalism so obviously you want lower taxes'.
Tu quoque: translates as 'you, too' and is a form of ad hominem when used to imply your debate opponent is being hypocritical rather than addressing their argument. For example: 'How can you advocate for tougher drink/driving laws when you've been convicted for the same offence?'
The ad hominem fallacy is the worst form of rhetoric when used as an argument. There is no substance to the argument (i.e. no thought or intelligence) and it is completely devoid of logic or reason. It will, therefore, come as no surprise to discover that Donald Trump Jr is the world's leading proponent of this fallacy. Here are just three examples of many ...
In conclusion, you should always avoid using the argumentum ad hominem fallacy unless you want to come across as a low IQ unstable genius!
On a final point, describing a person's intelligence, position, credentials, etc is not an ad hominem fallacy if those traits and abilities are relevant to the discussion/argument. For example, if someone with no medical training is giving medical advice, then it is fair criticism to point out that fact without committing an ad hominem fallacy. On that basis, it is fair criticism to point out that someone who thinks a cognitive test for the onset of dementia is some form of IQ test is probably not the sharpest tool in the shed!
Although not part of the standard suite of tests performed by the Wye Alliance citizen science project, the measurement of 'ammonia' is important due to its toxicity towards aquatic life and as an indicator of pollution from sewage, agricultural run-off (fertilizers) and waste discharge from various sources (residential, commercial and industrial). Some groups within the Wye Alliance (e.g.Wye Salmon Association) have been monitoring ammoniacal nitrogen for a number of years; however, this analysis may be deployed more widely within the River Wye Catchment in the future.
Ammonia, NH₃, and its conjugate acid - the ammonium ion, [NH₄]⁴ - co-exist in water with the latter predominating in most natural water systems where the pH is typically between 6.5 and 8.5 (Figure 1). Ammonia is toxic to aquatic life even at concentrations below 1 ppm whereas the ammonium ion is less harmful. Ammonium ions are converted to toxic ammonia by increases in both pH (i.e. more alkaline) and temperature.
Figure 1: Effect of pH on Ammonia/Ammonium Equilibrium
The Nessler reaction is used to quantify the total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) in water. The colour-forming reagent (potassium tetraiodomercurate II) reacts with ammonia to form a yellow (Photo 2) to reddish brown (Photo 3) complex. The intensity of the colour is proportional to the concentration of the ammonia. The reaction is carried out under strongly alkaline conditions (pH >11) to convert all the ammonium ions to ammonia (see Figure 1). Values are reported as TAN ppmN; i.e. the nitrogen concentration in the water that is present as either ammonia or ammonium. To quantify the toxic free ammonia concentration in the original water sample, you will need to measure its temperature and pH and use an on-line calculator.
Test kits for ammonia come in various forms:
Test strips (e.g. SimplexHealth) which are cheap and easy to use (just dip into the water) but less accurate as they rely on visual colour matching against a colour card
Liquid reagent kits (e.g. API Ammonia Test Kit) where reagents are added to a water sample in a test-tube and the resulting colour is matched against a colour card. Possibly a little more accurate than the test strips but still subjective.
Colorimeters such as the Hanna Checker Ammonia range where reagents (liquids or tablets) are added to the water sample in a cuvette and the colour intensity measured optically. Good accuracy at a reasonable price though more expensive than the first two options.
About a year ago, I bought a Hanna Low Range Ammonia Checker for use within our small group (the Belmont Testers) who regularly test the Newton Brook, a small tributary to the River Wye. The kit (Photo 1) comes with two glass cuvettes and two small bottles of reagent (Reagent A is a sodium hydroxide solution and Reagent B is a potassium tetraiodomercurate II solution) sufficient for 25 tests. I now buy the reagents in larger bottles sufficient for 100 tests as this is more economical.
Photo 1: Hanna Checker for Ammoniacal Nitrogen (0.0 to 3.0 ppmN)
The procedure is very simple:
rinse the cuvette and cap three times with the sample
fill cuvette to the 10 ml mark with sample
switch on the Checker unit so that 'C1' is displayed, insert the filled cuvette, close the lid and press the button (this is the sample blank)
when 'C2' is displayed, remove the cuvette and add 4 drops of Reagent A, cap and mix for a couple of seconds
add 4 drops of Reagent B, cap and mix for a couple of seconds
put the cuvette back in the Checker unit, close the lid and perform a long press until 3:30 appears on the display
3 minutes and 30 seconds later, the result appears on the display
finally, empty the contents of the cuvette down the toilet and wash with warm water followed by 3 rinses with distilled or de-ionised water.
the cuvettes can be left to dry although I prefer to store them filled with distilled water
Below I've included a couple of photos showing how the intensity of colour changes with increasing TAN content.
Photo 2: Unreacted and Reacted Samples containing 0.3 ppm TAN
Photo 3: Reacted Sample (>3 ppm TAN)
In Part 2 we will look at some typical results obtained during our citizen science work.
Logical reasoning is the process of using structured & rational thoughts/ideas/facts/rules/data/evidence to draw sound conclusions in the search for truth (i.e. the explanation that best describes reality). It is a form of critical thinking where one or more statements or facts (the premises) are used to reach a conclusion that is supported by the premises. The classic example is ...
This is an example of a syllogism (two premises and a conclusion) and the use of deductive reasoning. Logical arguments/reasoning require at least two premises (a major and a minor) but can have more; for example:
Premise 1: All humans are mortal
Premise 2: Socrates is a human
Premise 3: All mortal things eventually die
Conclusion: Therefore, Socrates will eventually die
For the conclusion to be valid, all the premises must be true. Logical fallacies can arise when either one or more premises are unsound or the conclusion does not rationally follow from the premises. For example:
Premise 1: All humans have two legs
Premise 2: I am human
Conclusion: Therefore, I have two legs
Logically, the argument is valid and I do, indeed, have two legs. However, the first premise is factually incorrect because some humans have fewer than two legs. Therefore, the conclusion will not be valid in all cases.
Here is another example of unsound logic where the premises are true but the conclusion is not valid because other types of bird (e.g. carrion crow) are also black
So, a sound syllogism (logical argument) must be logically valid (i.e. the conclusion follows the premises) AND have true premises. The argument is unsound if it fails either of these two conditions.
It is not uncommon in debates, discussions, arguments and everyday conversations to be presented with only the conclusion (Socrates is mortal) without any supporting premises. The premises may be innocently omitted for brevity because the speaker assumes the premises are accepted as universal truths. The alternative is that the speaker is using the omission as a rhetorical device to hide their fallacious reasoning. Do not be afraid to ask for the premises to be explicitly defined so that you can verify their truthfulness.
For example, someone who does not believe that global warming is happening might say "climate change is a hoax!"
When you ask them for evidence to support that argument, they might offer ...
Premise 1: If the earth is warming, cold nights are a thing of the past
Premise 2: It was frosty last night
Conclusion: Therefore, climate change is a hoax!
The current scientific evidence does not indicate the immediate disappearance of the winter season so we will continue to experience cold weather and snowfall at the appropriate time of the year. Premise 1 is therefore false which makes the conclusion unsound.
No-one is listening until you make a mistake - Stephen Wright
November (2025) was a bit of a strange month. There was plenty of sunshine but it also seemed to rain most days - sunshine and showers were the norm. Temperature-wise, the first half of the month (November 1st to November 15th) was extremely warm with a mean daily temperature of 12 ℃, some 5 ℃ warmer than normal! Temperatures returned to normal (daily average 6 ℃) for the second half of the month.
Storm Claudia hit Hereford on the 14th of the month with just over 22 mm of precipitation (Figure 2). Fortunately, we escaped the worst of the rain; c.f. Monmouth. Despite the (almost) one inch of rain deposited by Storm Claudia, the heaviest 24-hour rain event occurred a few days earlier on the 11th-12th November (Table 1).
This month's photo of the back garden (Photo 1) was taken on the 3rd November when there was plenty of autumn colour and before the autumn winds had removed the leaves.
Photo 1: The Back Garden on 3rd November 2025
Due to the popularity of last month's 'spot the wood pigeon', here is another test of your observational skills (Photo 2) ...
Photo 2: Spot the 'Woodie'
The rest of the daily garden photos for November 2025 are collated in Video 1 ...
Video 1: Daily Photos of the Rear Garden (November 2025)
Selected weather statistics from our backyard Davis Weather Station are summarised in Table 1. We had our first autumn frosts this month (seven of them), all during the cold spell (17th -26th November, Figure 1) when the mean daily temperatures were around 4 ℃. The other notable feature of November was the near 100 mm precipitation, well above average.
Table 1: Summary Weather Statistics for November 2025
Daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the month of November are shown in Figure 1. As noted above, the first half of the November were exceedingly warm, followed by about 10 days of below average temperatures with a return to warmer days and nights at the end of the month.
Figure 2 displays the daily sunshine and precipitation values for November. Rain fell on more than ¾ of the days, yielding 99.2 mm (approximately 4 inches) for the month as a whole. 60% of the monthly total fell over a six day period (9th - 14th) resulting in local flooding. In spite of all the rain, sunshine levels held up well especially during the cold snap.
Figure 2: Daily Rain/Sunshine Data (November 2025)
Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the November weather trends over the past 6 years (2020 - 2025). The mean November temperature (1991-2020 period) recorded at nearby Credenhill weather station is 7.3 ℃. Therefore, the mean November temperatures in Hereford itself (8 - 9 ℃, Figure 3) have been significantly warmer than the long-term average for the past 6 years.
Figure 3: Time Series of November Temperature Data (Hereford City)
November rainfall (Figure 4) has varied from about 5 mm to 100 mm over the past 6 years. The long-term average recorded at Credenhill is 68-69 mm; the past six years in Hereford have, therefore, seen one very dry November (2021), two below average (2020, 2023), one average (2024) and two well above average (2022, 2025) months. By comparison, sunshine levels have been remarkably constant.
Figure 4: Time Series Rain, Sunshine & Wind Data (Hereford City)
Figure 5, Figure 6, and Figure 7 are taken from the UK Met Office's monthly report for November 2025. For England and Wales, including Herefordshire (marked), November 2025 was warmer than the long-term average. The 1991-2020 November mean temperature at Credenhill (7.3 ℃) was 1.7 ℃ lower than my value (9 ℃, Table 1); i.e. at the upper limit indicated in Figure 5 (UHI and rounding effects?)
Figure 5: UK Mean Temperature Anomalies (November 2025)
England and Wales, including Herefordshire, had a wet month in November (Figure 6) in agreement with my backyard weather station (Table 1). Based on the Credenhill long-term rain data, my garden received about 150% of its normal rainfall in November. Some locations in Hereford (or just outside the city) received two, three or even four times as much rain than my back garden did during Storm Claudia. This would explain why Herefordshire, generally, received 175 - 200% of its normal November precipitation (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Relative UK Rainfall (November 2025)
Herefordshire (Figure 7) received above average (110% - 150%) sunshine during November 2025 and we certainly enjoyed a number of sunny days. Based on the evidence that sunshine levels were very average in November 2024, Figure 4 infers that sunshine levels in November 2025 were only 10% - 15% higher than normal.
Figure 7: Relative UK Sunshine Hours (November 2025)
Jobs in the Garden
Hot composting continues: finished compost added as mulch to the fruit beds
Pick last of the aubergines and tomatoes in the polytunnel
Harvesting beetroot, potatoes, turnips, chard and spinach
Start clearing the polytunnel
Flora & Fauna in the Garden
Blackbird (x2)
Blue Tit (x3)
Collared Dove (x1)
Crow (x1)
Dunnock (x1)
House Sparrow (x11)
Robin (x1)
Starling (x12)
Photo 3: Starling Melee on the Bird Feeder
Wood Pigeon (x3)
Not many photos from the garden this month ...
Photo 4: Gazania Plants on the Patio Table (Nov 6th 2025)
Photo 5: Cosmos in Pots (6th November 2025)
Photo 6: Salvia amongst the Autumn Colours (6th November 2025)
We were given a cutting of this Epiphyllum many years ago (20?) by a B&B landlady, Dinah, near Cleobury Mortimer. It flowers every year and we have passed cuttings onto family and friends.
Photo 7: Epiphyllum (indoor) - November 17th 2025
Finally, here is a short (2-3 minutes) video of the starlings attacking our bird feeder. Quality is not good because it was filmed through a glass windowpane in slo-mo. Can you count how many starlings there are?
A few days after arriving back in Hereford from our weekend break in Llanbister, we were heading off to Wales again for a short one-night stay in Usk or Brynbuga in Welsh. The main reason for staying in Usk, apart from it being a pretty little town, was a visit to the pantomime, Brynbugadoon. This is always a family-friendly pantomime presented by the Usk Panto Players with a script written by local author, Julie McGowan.
We stayed in a lovely cottage a short walk from the town centre. But I'm getting ahead of myself because before arriving in Usk we visited Raglan Castle, a few miles to the north of Usk.
Photo 2: Raglan Castle (Nov 25)
As members of English Heritage, we get free entry to Cadw properties. We unfortunately arrived as it started to rain so our visit was necessarily brief. This is a compact and interesting castle dating from the 15th Century with later additions.
Photo 3: Moat, Raglan Castle
CADW have made an effort with some interesting artefacts located around the castle ruins. For example, this one is placed where the library used to be ...
Photo 4: Library, Raglan Castle
... and this contraption (designed and built by one of the castle owners) was an early version of a tray warmer designed to keep the food warm.
Photo 5: Early English Renaissance Plate Warmer
We attended the panto in the evening and it was thoroughly enjoyed by everyone present. Another bonus: we won another raffle prize!
The following day we had a look around Usk itself. Unfortunately, the museum was closed for the winter but the locals were very friendly. We wandered up and down the high street visiting Twyn Square where this Georgian House (Photo 6) was available to buy for £1,000,000 ...
Photo 6: Grade 2 Listed Georgian House, Twyn Square, Usk
We strolled up to the privately-owned Usk Castle but this was also closed for the winter ...
Photo 7: Entrance to Usk Castle
... and it was difficult to get a good view of the castle remains (Photo 8) ...
Photo 8: Usk Castle from the Car Park
The ruins do not appear to be as extensive as those of Raglan Castle but the gardens are apparently worth visiting.
The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read - Mark Twain
We enjoyed a couple of trips into Wales at the end of November to celebrate my birthday. On the first trip we stopped briefly at Water-Breaks-Its-Neck waterfall before moving on to Llanbister and a couple of nights stay at the Lion Hotel. Janet & Ray, our hosts were excellent company and the food was top notch. The view from our bedroom window with the River Ithon in the foreground was delightful (Photo 1) ...
Photo 1: View over the Ithon Valley from Our Bedroom Window at the Lion Hotel Nov 2025)
... and atmospheric when the evening mist settled in the valley bottom (Photo 2) ...
Photo 2: Evening Mist Rolling Down the Ithon Valley (Nov 25)
The River Ithon is well-known for its game fishing (mainly grayling and trout) and is monitored by citizen scientists as part of the Wye Alliance. One of the three sampling points on the River Ithon is just upstream of Llanbister (Figure 1) so we can use WyeViz to look at the citizen science data collected at this site (U167).
Figure 1: Citizen Science Sampling Site near Llanbister
Nutrient pollution is low with SRP (Soluble Reactive Phosphates) values typically between 0.00 and 0.20 ppm and Total Oxidised Nitrogen (Nitrates + Nitrites) values between 0 and 2 ppm. Figure 2 shows the turbidity values measured with a Secchi tube. For most of the time, turbidity is recorded as 12 NTU (nephelometric turbidity units) which is the minimum value measurable with the standard issue Secchi tube. In all probability, the turbidities were lower than this (perhaps <5 NTU) and so the water would look clear and clean. Occasionally, following heavy rain, the turbidity would increase; on one occasion the value reached 240 NTU which is the maximum value that can be measured with the standard Secchi tube.
Figure 2: Turbidity Values (NTU) at U167 (Llanbister)
The spikes in turbidity occur during the winter period when arable soils are more likely to be bare and susceptible to soil run-off. However, the agricultural land around Llanbister is predominantly pasture (Photo 2) and should, therefore, be resistant to run-off during heavy precipitation events. The turbidity source may, therefore, be upstream towards Llandridnod Wells.
After a delicious evening meal (vegetable lasagne) and a pint of local ale, at the Lion Hotel, we headed off to the Community Hall for an evening's excellent entertainment from the Rhayader Male Voice Choir. As an added bonus we won a prize in the raffle!
Ostensibly, we went to see leaping salmon on the Marteg River but, alas, there were none to be seen. Here is a video (with slo-mo) taken from the viewing platform where, under normal circumstances, you might see the salmon swimming upstream to the spawning grounds.
Video 1: Marteg River from the Salmon Viewing Platform (minus salmon) - Nov 25
2025 looks like another bad year for salmon in the Wye and Usk river catchment, though decent numbers of trout have been caught. As always, it is a complicated picture: low river levels and high water temperatures didn't help, nor did the levels of pollution (nutrients + turbidity). I read somewhere (cannot locate where at the moment) that the number of fish returning to spawn is less than the numbers that left the previous year (marine exploitation?).
After an excellent breakfast at the Lion Hotel, we set off for Llandrindod Wells; it was fairly quiet as it was Sunday. We had a look around Rock Park and Spa in the centre of town.
Video 2: Rock Park & Spa, Llandrindod Wells (Nov 25)
The Chalybeate Spring ...
Photo 4: Chalybeate Spring, Llandrindod Wells
... allegedly, has healing properties. From the ochre deposits, the spring waters are clearly rich in iron ...
Photo 4: Chalybeate Spring Information Board
After a little more time exploring ...
Photo 5: Rock Park & Spa, Llandrindod Wells
... Mary went off to church while I retired to the Chalybeate Tea Rooms for a very reasonably priced coffee ...
Photo 6: Coffee @ Chalybeate Tea Room (Nov 25)
... despite the rather plush surroundings. I resisted the temptation to have some cake ...
Photo 7: Cake Table, Chalybeate Tea Rooms
The staff were a little over-attentive (it wasn't too busy at 11 am on a Sunday) but otherwise a very pleasant time was had. Roast dinners were the order of the day for later and I would imagine this place would be extremely popular.
After meeting up again, we headed for the Landrindod Wells Lake Park conveniently located within walking distance of the town centre. We had planned on having lunch here but the cafe/bistro was busy with the 'Sunday Roast' crowd so we opted for a walk round the lake (about 1 km) instead.
Photo 8: Llandrindod Wells Lake viewed from the Cafe/Bistro Building
The dragon statue does spray water from its mouth but not while we were there. It did, however, provide a suitable resting place for the cormorants (to the annoyance of the anglers who also use the lake for fishing?).
Photo 9: Dragon & Cormorants, Llandrindod Wells Lake
Photo 10: Lake View Looking Towards the Cafe/Bistro
Lunch was soup, bread & cheese followed by fruit and yoghurt purchased at a local supermarket and eaten in a lay-by on the outskirts of Llandrindod Wells! Not for the first time, the campervan kitchen facilities came into their own.
We just had time for a quick visit to the Elan Valley to see the overflow of the main dam (Caban Coch) ...
Photo 11: Caban Coch Dam, Elan Valley (Nov 25)
... before it started to rain. We headed back to the Lion Hotel for a superb vegetable curry (with all the trimmings) and another pint of the local ale.
Originally, we had planned on slowly winding our way home on the Monday but decided at the last minute to make a detour via the Winter Fair at the Royal Welsh Showground near Builth Wells. The Winter Fair combines the usual farm stock shows/competitions ...
Photo 12: Head to Tail
Photo 13: Or Head to Head
... with lots of Christmas shopping. After 4-5 hours at the show, it was time to head home, exhausted but happy.
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