Following on from my earlier blogpost, while staying in Bicester we paid a visit to Waddesdon Manor. We had visited Waddesdon on two previous occasions: the first time when our youngest daughter was married at the Dairy, and, the second time, when we were passing and needed refreshments/facilities at this National Trust property. The second occasion turned out to be very brief after we turned around in the car park when we discovered the facilities were a shuttle bus ride away (or a 20-30 minute walk).
As National Trust Members, we have free entry to the house & grounds but on this occasion paid an extra £6 per head to attend the Chilli Festival held in the grounds.
Photo 2: Chilli Festival, Waddesdon Manor (1st September 2024)
There were lots of stalls selling various chilli-containing products (tea, cheese, seeds & nuts, sauces, jams, pickles, ice cream, etc), chilli plants and more. Most, if not all, products could be tasted before buying (or not). Plus a large selection of hot (as in temperature) and cold food emporiums catering for the many hungry customers.
Music and entertainment was provided throughout the afternoon including the infamous chilli eating competition where eight brave (or, possibly, foolish) men and women work their way through increasingly hotter chillies (Photo 3). The winner is the last man/women standing - sick bags and milk drinks are provided though you are immediately disqualified if you use either!
Photo 3: Chilli Eating Competition
The Scoville Scale is used to classify the pungency (heat) of chilli peppers. I grow Jalapeno peppers in my polytunnel using a QuadGrow Veg/Salad Planter.
Photo 4: Home-Grown Jalapeno Chilli Peppers
These chillies are rated somewhere between 2500 and 8000 on the Scoville Scale. Out of the 10 types of chilli used in the chilli eating competition, Jalopeno was, I think, the 9th hottest with a Scoville rating of 2500 - 8000. From memory, in second spot was the Californian Reaper, rated at over 2,000,000 on the Scoville Scale, and nobody except the winner could get pass this one.
The Bubble Wizard was a popular attraction especially for the children ...
Video 1: The Bubble Wizard
Video 2: The Bubble Wizard
Video 3: The Bubble Wizard
And for the older visitors, a chance to look round the magnificent gardens ...
Photo 8: 'Flights of Fancy', Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)
Photo 9: 'Flights of Fancy', Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)
... linked to established Aviary at Waddesdon ...
Photo 10: Aviary at Waddesdon (September 2024)
We only had time for a short walk round the pleasure gardens where you can see the Elephant Family ...
Photo 11: Life-sized Indian Elephant Sculptures
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.. with no time to visit the extensive parkland ...
Photo 12: Parkland at Waddesdon
We both enjoyed our visit to Waddesdon Manor and hope to return sometime soon. We still have to do the house tour and many of the walks or attend one of the many events.
We experienced our first autumn frost of 2024 on the 11th October. It was forecast and occurred between 5 o'clock and 9 o'clock in the morning (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Recorded Minimum Temperatures (12 am to 12 pm, 11/10/24)
The data logger recorded a minimum -0 ℃, so just below the freezing point of water, which was rounded up to 0 ℃ in the above plot. Figure 1 shows a period of 4 hours (between 5 am and 9 am) when the temperature was zero. The bird bath had a thin sliver of floating ice, confirming the temperature dropped below the freezing point of water, if only just (Photo 1).
Photo 1: Ice on the Bird Bath (11/10/24)
At 8 o'clock in the morning, the surrounding roofs were still frosted and the sky was clear of clouds.
Photo 2: Frosted Roofs I (11/10/24)
Photo 3: Frosted Roofs II (11/10/24)
Later in the morning, I had a quick look round the garden to see if any plants had frosted but they had, thankfully survived.
Photo 4: Cosmos (11/10/24)
Photo 5: Japanese Anemone (11/10/24)
Photo 6: Dahlia (11/10/24)
Photo 7: Strawberry Tree (11/10/24)
Photo 8: Salvia (11/10/24)
Photo 9: Salvia Hot Lips (11/10/24)
The day before (10th October 2024), this rather ragged specimen of a butterfly (Large White) was spotted on the appropriately-named butterfly bush (aka Buddleja). With a frost predicted overnight (11/10/24), this may have been the butterfly's last taste of nectar.
Photo 10: Late-Season Large White Butterfly (10/10/24)
The clear blue skies (Photo 10) provided ideal conditions for rapid temperature drops and the subsequent frost the following morning. Coincidentally, it also provided ideal conditions to observe the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) in Herefordshire. Unfortunately, we missed them due light pollution at our location. Here are some pictures from the Hereford Times.
This year's first autumn frost (October 11th) is much earlier than normal for Hereford. In 2020 and 2021, the first frosts were on November 4th and November 3rd respectively. In 2022 and 2023, they were much later in November - the 29th and the 24th respectively.
The weather forecast for the next couple of weeks is not predicting any more frosts. So there is still time to gather in the harvest from the kitchen garden and enjoy the flowers for a while longer.
Photo 11: Ten Winter Squashes Sitting on a Windowsill
Recently, I discussed the 'biblical' rainfall experienced in Hereford in September 2024. As global (and local) temperatures increase as a result of climate change, we expect precipitation levels to increase commensurately. This is just basic physics - warmer air contains more moisture so more water will precipitate when it rains/snows/hails. Not only does the extra water vapour in the air enhance the greenhouse effect (a feedback that speeds up the rate of temperature rise), it also increases the probability of intense rainfall events. According to the IPPC, rainfall is expected to increase in both intensity and frequency.
"At the global scale, the intensification of heavy precipitation will follow the rate of increase in the maximum amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold as it warms (high confidence), of about 7% per 1°C of global warming." (Chapter 11, IPPC AR6)
I was curious as to whether this global prediction of a roughly 7% increase per ℃ in precipitation levels was borne out locally and nationally. Table 1 lists temperature and rainfall data from the Credenhill Weather Station, situated 3-4 miles away. I have used 30-year climate averages (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020) to smooth the (considerable) year-to-year variations in precipitation.
TABLE 1: Credenhill: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
9.44
656.8
1971-2000
9.76
673.2
1981-2010
9.95
664.9
1991-2020
10.25
695.5
The associated scatter plot (Figure 1) is shown below (Figure 1) ...
Using the regression equation (Rainfall = 42.8*Temperature + 251. R² = 0.76), a 1 ℃ rise in temperature produces a 42.8 mm rise in rainfall; equivalent to an average increase of 6.4 % per ℃ for the period covered by the data.
Repeating the process for another local weather station (approximately 15 miles away) at Ross-on-Wye; the data is presented in Table 2 and Figure 2.
TABLE 2: Ross-on-Wye: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
9.86
686.3
1971-2000
10.19
706.2
1981-2010
10.49
733.5
1991-2020
10.80
764.3
Again, from the regression equation (Rainfall = 83.6*Temperature - 141, R² = 0.988), rainfall in Ross-on-Wye has increased at an average rate of 8.6% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.
TABLE 3: Shobdon Airfield: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
9.17
783.32
1971-2000
9.48
798.92
1981-2010
9.77
793.78
1991-2020
9.96
797.29
The slope of the regression line indicates a much smaller relative increase in rainfall with temperature. From the regression equation (Rainfall = 14.4*Temperature + 656, R² = 0.5), rainfall at Shobdon Airfield has increased at an average rate of 1.8% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.
In the final 3 examples, we look at much wider geographical areas, starting with the (English) Midlands. Table 4 and Figure 4 summarise the data.
TABLE 4: Midlands, England: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
8.90
768.05
1971-2000
9.20
777.53
1981-2010
9.53
792.70
1991-2020
9.84
809.77
From the regression equation (Rainfall = 44.6*Temperature + 369, R² = 0.987), rainfall in the English Midlands has increased at an average rate of 5.7% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.
Temperature and rainfall data for England can be found here and is summarised in Table 5 and Figure 5.
TABLE 5: England: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
9.05
820.31
1971-2000
9.35
830.95
1981-2010
9.66
849.78
1991-2020
9.97
869.55
From the regression equation in Figure 5 (Rainfall = 54.3*Temperature + 326, R² = 0.985), rainfall in the England has increased at an average rate of 6.4% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.
And, finally, Table 6 and Figure 6 look at the temperature and rainfall relationship for the whole of the UK (data here).
TABLE 6: United Kingdom: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period
Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990
8.34
1084.08
1971-2000
8.60
1111.69
1981-2010
8.88
1141.95
1991-2020
9.16
1162.70
From the regression equation in Figure 6 (Rainfall = 97*Temperature + 277, R² = 0.993), rainfall in the United Kingdom (UK) has increased at an average rate of 8.6% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.
Analysing real world data on a local, regional and countrywide basis, we can confirm the IPPC prediction of an expected 7% increase in precipitation with every 1 ℃ rise in temperature is correct. Some localities will be less (e.g. Shobdon Airfield), some will be more (e.g. Ross-on-Wye), but, in the end, it will be the physics that decides the global average value of 7%.
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