The Law of Unintended Consequences

 Most people will be able to give you an example of "the law of unintended consequences" where the expected beneficial actions of a person, group, organisation or government turn out to have unexpected and unhelpful effects. For example, the town of Quelimane in Mozambique had a rat problem which they tried to solve by offering a bounty for every dead rat - unfortunately, this led to a profitable business opportunity breeding rats! Or, maybe that was an apocryphal story and it really happened in Hanoi, Vietnam? A similar anecdote involved cobras in Delhi, India (The Cobra Effect).

Photo 1: Does an Increase in Minimum Wage mean Job Losses? TL:DR No!

We are about to have the first Budget of the new Labour Government on Wednesday 30th October 2024. There is expected to be an inflation-busting increase in the minimum wage and we can expect some economists and political reporters to raise this old chestnut as an example of the law of unintended consequences: any increase in the minimum wage (designed to alleviate poverty) will lead to higher unemployment (i.e. make poverty worse). The connection between higher minimum wages and higher unemployment was debunked many years ago by Card & Kreuger, 1994; Leonard et al., 2014; Hafner et al., 2016; Forth et al. 2020.

Which brings me nicely onto a real example of the law of unintended consequences related by this story on the BBC website.

Embed from Getty Images

For millennia, we have disposed of our waste by digging holes and burying it in waste pits. For a long time this wasn't too much of a problem as much of the waste would be hardware (e.g. broken pottery) and very little would be organic (e.g. food waste) because anything unsuitable for human consumption would be used as pigswill. It is now illegal in the UK to feed food scraps to farm animals following outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in the 1990s. In addition, the proliferation of convenience foods along with the forgotten art of reusing food leftovers has increased the percentage of food waste (residential and commercial) disposed of in landfill sites.

Hence, our first unintended consequence - the decomposition of food and organic waste under the anaerobic conditions of a landfill site producing methane, a greenhouse gas some 85 times worse global warming potential compared to carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. In 1996, the UK Government increased landfill tax from £7 per tonne to about £84 per tonne to incentivise a reduce/reuse/recycle behaviour in the population.

By making the disposal of waste via landfill expensive, it has given rise to a proliferation of energy from waste (EfW) incinerators and anaerobic digestion (AD) plants. There are good arguments for both waste disposal methods but their proliferation has resulted in unintended consequences.

The BBC report now classifies EfW incinerators as our dirtiest form of electricity generation since the UK no longer generates electricity from coal.

More than half the UK's waste is now incinerated and there are plans for this percentage to increase if all the proposed incinerators are built. If you recall, the problem with landfill was the production of methane from the anaerobic decomposition of organic waste. By diverting the organic (e.g. food) waste from landfill to EfW incinerators, the operators could claim to be the 'green' option because CO₂ is a less potent greenhouse gas than CH₄. Unfortunately, for the environment at least, the amount of organic waste in our general waste has decreased (diverted to AD plants or composted?) and been replaced, to a large extent, by plastic. Strange as it may seem, the best place to dispose of plastic waste (assuming you cannot reuse, re-purpose or recycle it) is a landfill site where it will remain buried & unchanged for decades/centuries.

Another drawback to both incinerators and AD plants is the need for a steady consistent feedstock supply. Once built and operating, this disincentivizes other 'disposal' methods such as waste reduction/recycling/reuse. Local authorities sign long-term contracts (25 years) with an agreed tonnage supply of waste and penalties if they do not meet those targets.

So, in a nutshell, the original aim of increasing the landfill tax was to reduce the overall amount of waste. This could be achieved in many ways: e.g. dispensing with unnecessary packaging, repairing rather than throwing away, re-purposing, reusing and recycling, car-sharing clubs, etc. Instead, we have ended up with the dirtiest form of electricity generation through a series of unintended consequences.

Citizen Science - Turbidity (Part 1)

The Wye Alliance is a network of citizen scientists monitoring pollutant levels in the River Wye and its tributaries and working closely with the Environment Agency (EA). Citizen Science (CS) projects often work with basic instrumentation/equipment collecting vast quantities of data that regulatory bodies, such as the EA, could only dream about. For example, there are over 400 citizen scientists collecting twice-weekly data in the River Wye watershed. All the information is uploaded using the Epicollect App and is available to one and all via the WyeViz database.

Turbidity is an important measure of water quality and clarity that is widely used in both freshwater & marine ecological studies as well as in many industrial processes (e.g. sewage and potable water treatment, breweries, pharmaceutical preparations). In simple terms, it provides a measure of the haziness or cloudiness of a fluid caused by the presence of suspended microscopic particles.

Here is a recent photo (Photo 1) of Belmont Pool, a fishing lake in a country park on the outskirts of Hereford. In addition to the avian population, coarse fish, insects and plant life, there is also a colony of terrapins. Unfortunately, at the time this photograph was taken (October 2024), the turbidity of the water was excessively high which is bad news for all the flora & fauna tenants.

Photo 1: Belmont Pool (October 2024)

There are a variety of units used to quantify turbidity which is extremely inconvenient and confusing. However, the most widely used are Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) so we will stick with these units. So what are good and bad levels of turbidity?

• Drinking water should always be < 1 NTU and, typically, <0.3 NTU
• Freshwater will vary from <10 NTU (visibility to depths of 50 cm or more) to >240 NTU (visibility to depths of 10 cm or less)
• Turbidities > 10 NTU cause short-term stress to aquatic life
• Turbidities >100 NTU are unsafe for aquatic life

The turbidity level in Photo 1 will be in excess of 100 NTU.

Why is high turbidity water bad?

1. higher water temperatures because the suspended particles trap more heat from the sun
2. reduced photosynthesis at lower depths due to less light penetration
3. reduction in dissolved oxygen content due to points 1. and 2.
4. clogs fish gills making breathing more difficult
5. sediment can smother fish eggs and affect larval development of aquatic life (insects)
6. stressed fish (points 1 - 4) are more susceptible to disease
7. predators (e.g. birds such as the kingfisher) cannot see their prey
8. Bottom feeders such as swans, ducks cannot see their food source
9. silts up ponds, river courses, etc
10. may encourage/sustain toxic algal blooms (Photo 2)

Photo 2: Toxic Blue-Green Algae

What causes high turbidity?

1. In these parts, the main source (> 70 %) of high turbidity is soil run-off due to poor or incompetent agricultural practices. The coffee-coloured streams contain the nutrient-rich red topsoil that is the lifeblood of Herefordshire's agricultural heritage (Photo 3).
2. Sewage discharges from CSOs and poorly maintained or leaking septic tanks
3. Road run-off after heavy rainfall plus other urban sources
4. Algal blooms
5. Erosion
6. Chemical pollution (Photo 4)

Photo 3: Typical Coffee-coloured Soil Run-off

Photo 4: Chemical of Natural Foam?

In part 2, I'll describe how we, as citizen scientists, measure turbidity.

Apple Bobbing on the River Wye?

 Mary & I were walking to the AGM of CPRE Herefordshire that includes a stretch of the River Wye as it passes through the city of Hereford. We noticed some green vegetative matter and the odd log in the water but didn't stop to investigate as we would have been late for the meeting. Some 2½ hours later, we returned along the same stretch of river bank to see the same scene (Video 1).

Video 1: Apple Pollution

This time we could identify the nature of the pollution as apples, and more specifically, cider apples for which Herefordshire is famous.

This is the view from the Hunderton Bridge, formerly a railway bridge but now carrying the Great Western Way cycle/pedestrian path over the River Wye. The raft of apples can be seen (Photo 1) in the distance towards the right bank* ...

Photo 1: Looking Downstream Towards the New & Old Bridge

... and a little clearer (Photo 2) when zoomed in ...

Photo 2: Close-up of the Floating Apples

[* the left and right banks of a river/stream are assigned in the normal way when looking downstream; when looking upstream, the right bank will now be on your left and the left bank on your right] 

We hadn't seen or heard anything about an apple bobbing competition and, as far as I knew, Westons Cider were not using river transport as a means of getting the apples from the orchards to the cider mill. Best guess is that a riverside cider orchard was flooded, due to recent heavy rains, and the apples, along with a few fallen branches (see foreground of Photo 1), floated off into the river. There were a lot of apples and, according to a local angler, this was a recurring phenomenon.

Classic Vinyl #2 Stevie Wonder - Innervisions

 A talent like Stevie Wonder only comes along once in a generation. A multi-instrumental singer/songwriter/producer who signed up to his first record deal (Tamla Motown) aged 11 and had his first #1 hit when only 13. Born 6 weeks premature in 1950 as Stevland Hardaway Judkins, he was blind virtually from birth. He is still performing and active musically.

Innervisions was released in 1973 which makes my copy 51 years old; and it still plays beautifully. See here for a bit more on the story behind this album.

Front Cover

Back Cover

I've included all the tracks from the album below, courtesy of YouTube (sorry about the ads), so you too can appreciate this wonderful music. You can still buy copies on vinyl or you might be lucky and find second-hand copies in record stalls, shops, e-bay, etc.

My favourite track is Living in the City but it is a close call.

SIDE ONE

Too High

Visions

Living for the City

Golden Lady

SIDE TWO

Higher Ground

Jesus Children of America

All in Love is Fair

Don't You Worry 'Bout a Thing

He's Misstra Know-it-All

Bicester Trip and Snowshill Manor

 Having already visited two National Trust properties (Chastleton House and Waddesdon Manor) on our long weekend trip to Bicester, we went for the hat-trick by stopping off at Snowshill Manor & Garden on the journey home.

Photo 1: Snowshill Manor (September 2024)

The manor (village and land) dates back to at least 821 CE/AD when it was gifted to Winchcombe Abbey by the King of Mercia. In the Domesday Book (1086 CE), Snawesille was valued at £5 and included 12 villagers, 2 smallholdings, 6 slaves and 72 oxen (or 9 plough teams). After the Dissolution of the Monasteries (1539), it became Crown property and was included in the dowry to Henry VIII's sixth and last queen, Catherine Parr in 1543. It is around this time that the current building was established.

Several owners later and following a 150 year period of farm tenancies, the house and grounds were purchased by Charles Wade in 1919. Wade was an inveterate collector of artefacts and he made numerous additions and modifications to Snowshill Manor to house his collection. The eclectic collection of over 22,000 items include Samurai armour, bicycles, carriages, musical instruments, and much more.

Photo 2: Some of the Many Musical Instruments on Display at Snowshill Manor

Wade also had a workshop on-site where he constructed models houses, boats, etc. In the gardens, you will find an example of his craftemenship at Wolf's Cove, a model fishing village ...

Photo 3: Wolf's Cove at Snowshill Manor

The gardens comprise a series of garden rooms and are sizeable but not extensive; there is an orchard and kitchen garden as well as more floral displays. 

Photo 4: Garden View from the Workshop (Snowshill Manor)

There is an excellent cafe/tearoom at Snowshill. We had a really tasty curried cauliflower pastie. There are toilets at reception and the Manor. It is a 500-yard walk from the car park/reception to the Manor along a smooth, but at times steep, path. We took the golf buggy to the Manor and walked back to the Car Park.

The house has several storeys accessed by stairways that you need to consider if you have accessibility issues. The garden has uneven paths and quite a few steps.

The Priest's House and the Workshop are also worth a visit.

The Wade family owned sugar plantations in St Kitts and Charles spent his time between Snowshill and St Kitts. Previous generations of the Wade family had slaves and were recompensed for their 'loss' following the abolition of slavery in 1833. Charles Wade never owned slaves but obviously benefitted financially from the slave trade practised by his ancestors. The National Trust does not hide this fact though it doesn't advertise it either.

Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

 In an earlier blog, I mentioned a visit to Westonbury Mill Water Gardens on our way to Knighton for a weekend away. I have just remembered that I forgot to tell you about the water gardens. They only open during the Spring & Summer (April to Semptember, inclusive) so you've got plenty of time to plan your visit.

Photo 1:  View Looking over the Pond

Hydrologist, Richard Pim, bought the house and grounds in the 1960s and set about designing the garden and building the follies. The current owners, Mark & Deborah Constable, bought the property in 2021 and have put their heart and soul into maintaining, restoring and improving the gardens.

We had a bite to eat and a hot drink in the cafe before starting our tour of the garden. The main attractions are the water-powered follies designed and built by Richard Pim. The first folly we came across was the Stone Water Tower ...

Photo 2: Stone Water Tower, Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

The mill stream drives a waterwheel which lifts water upto a tank at the top of the tower using small buckets mounted on a belt system. The buckets empty their contents into a tank which discharges the water through a gargoyle when full. The following two videos show the system in action.

Video 1: Stone Water Tower, Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

Video 2: Stone Water Tower, Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

The next folly is the Glass Bottle Dome made from 5000 wine bottles of various hues ...

Photo 3: Glass Bottle Dome, Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

... which looks even more impressive from the inside, especially on a bright sunny day ...

Photo 4: Inside the Glass Bottle Dome

Photo 5: Inside the Glass Bottle Dome

The next folly, the Giant Cuckoo Clock, operates every hour. If you arrive about 10 minutes to the hour and are lucky, Mark will be on hand to explain how the clock works and its history.

Photo 6: Giant Cuckoo Clock, Westonbury Mill Water Gardens

Photo 7: The Cuckoo Appears on Time 

This unique water clock is worth the admission price alone. You can hear the manufactured birdsong in the video below.

Video 3: Giant Cuckoo Clock Birdsong

Check the website for more information on the follies. A YouTube search for 'Westonbury Mill Water Gardens' will lead you to a number of short videos describing the gardens and the follies. For example, here, here, and here.

Mark & Deborah are embarking on new projects such as the Chashitsu, a room used for Japanese tea ceremonies ...

Photo 8: Traditional Japanese Chashitsu (unfinished)

... along with a good deal of tree planting. There are lots of features and garden rooms to explore - too many to discuss here. We spent a very pleasant 3 hours exploring the gardens and will return in a different season to enjoy different vistas and new features.

Photo 9: Driftwood Horse in Field

Bicester Trip and Waddesdon Manor

 Following on from my earlier blogpost, while staying in Bicester we paid a visit to Waddesdon Manor. We had visited Waddesdon on two previous occasions: the first time when our youngest daughter was married at the Dairy, and, the second time, when we were passing and needed refreshments/facilities at this National Trust property. The second occasion turned out to be very brief after we turned around in the car park when we discovered the facilities were a shuttle bus ride away (or a 20-30 minute walk).

Waddesdon Manor is a French Renaissance-Style Chateau built by the English branch of the Rothschilds.

Photo 1: Waddesdon Manor (1st Sept 2024)

As National Trust Members, we have free entry to the house & grounds but on this occasion paid an extra £6 per head to attend the Chilli Festival held in the grounds.

Photo 2: Chilli Festival, Waddesdon Manor (1st September 2024)

There were lots of stalls selling various chilli-containing products (tea, cheese, seeds & nuts, sauces, jams, pickles, ice cream, etc), chilli plants and more. Most, if not all, products could be tasted before buying (or not). Plus a large selection of hot (as in temperature) and cold food emporiums catering for the many hungry customers.

Music and entertainment was provided throughout the afternoon including the infamous chilli eating competition where eight brave (or, possibly, foolish) men and women work their way through increasingly hotter chillies (Photo 3). The winner is the last man/women standing - sick bags and milk drinks are provided though you are immediately disqualified if you use either!

Photo 3: Chilli Eating Competition

The Scoville Scale is used to classify the pungency (heat) of chilli peppers. I grow Jalapeno peppers in my polytunnel using a QuadGrow Veg/Salad Planter.

Photo 4: Home-Grown Jalapeno Chilli Peppers

These chillies are rated somewhere between 2500 and 8000 on the Scoville Scale. Out of the 10 types of chilli used in the chilli eating competition, Jalopeno was, I think, the 9th hottest with a Scoville rating of 2500 - 8000. From memory, in second spot was the Californian Reaper, rated at over 2,000,000 on the Scoville Scale, and nobody except the winner could get pass this one.

The Bubble Wizard was a popular attraction especially for the children ...

Video 1: The Bubble Wizard

Video 2: The Bubble Wizard

Video 3: The Bubble Wizard

And for the older visitors, a chance to look round the magnificent gardens ...

Photo 5: Parterre, Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)

Photo 6: Parterre, Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)

Photo 7: Parterre, Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)

The 'Flights of Fancy' exhibition in the house and gardens was current during our visit ...

Photo 8: 'Flights of Fancy', Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)

Photo 9: 'Flights of Fancy', Waddesdon Manor (September 2024)

... linked to established Aviary at Waddesdon ...

Photo 10: Aviary at Waddesdon (September 2024)

We only had time for a short walk round the pleasure gardens where you can see the Elephant Family ...

Photo 11: Life-sized Indian Elephant Sculptures

.

.. with no time to visit the extensive parkland ...

Photo 12: Parkland at Waddesdon

We both enjoyed our visit to Waddesdon Manor and hope to return sometime soon. We still have to do the house tour and many of the walks or attend one of the many events.

First Frost of Autumn 2024

 We experienced our first autumn frost of 2024 on the 11th October. It was forecast and occurred between 5 o'clock and 9 o'clock in the morning (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Recorded Minimum Temperatures (12 am to 12 pm, 11/10/24)

The data logger recorded a minimum -0 ℃, so just below the freezing point of water, which was rounded up to 0 ℃ in the above plot. Figure 1 shows a period of 4 hours (between 5 am and 9 am) when the temperature was zero. The bird bath had a thin sliver of floating ice, confirming the temperature dropped below the freezing point of water, if only just (Photo 1).

Photo 1: Ice on the Bird Bath (11/10/24)

At 8 o'clock in the morning, the surrounding roofs were still frosted and the sky was clear of clouds.

Photo 2: Frosted Roofs I (11/10/24)

Photo 3: Frosted Roofs II (11/10/24)

Later in the morning, I had a quick look round the garden to see if any plants had frosted but they had, thankfully survived.

Photo 4: Cosmos (11/10/24)

Photo 5: Japanese Anemone (11/10/24)

Photo 6: Dahlia (11/10/24)

Photo 7: Strawberry Tree (11/10/24)

Photo 8: Salvia (11/10/24)

Photo 9: Salvia Hot Lips (11/10/24)

The day before (10th October 2024), this rather ragged specimen of a butterfly (Large White) was spotted on the appropriately-named butterfly bush (aka Buddleja). With a frost predicted overnight (11/10/24), this may have been the butterfly's last taste of nectar. 

Photo 10: Late-Season Large White Butterfly (10/10/24)

The clear blue skies (Photo 10) provided ideal conditions for rapid temperature drops and the subsequent frost the following morning. Coincidentally, it also provided ideal conditions to observe the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) in Herefordshire. Unfortunately, we missed them due light pollution at our location. Here are some pictures from the Hereford Times.

This year's first autumn frost (October 11th) is much earlier than normal for Hereford. In 2020 and 2021, the first frosts were on November 4th and November 3rd respectively. In 2022 and 2023, they were much later in November - the 29th and the 24th respectively.

The weather forecast for the next couple of weeks is not predicting any more frosts. So there is still time to gather in the harvest from the kitchen garden and enjoy the flowers for a while longer.

Photo 11: Ten Winter Squashes Sitting on a Windowsill

Higher Global Temperatures = More Rain

 Recently, I discussed the 'biblical' rainfall experienced in Hereford in September 2024. As global (and local) temperatures increase as a result of climate change, we expect precipitation levels to increase commensurately. This is just basic physics - warmer air contains more moisture so more water will precipitate when it rains/snows/hails. Not only does the extra water vapour in the air enhance the greenhouse effect (a feedback that speeds up the rate of temperature rise), it also increases the probability of intense rainfall events. According to the IPPC, rainfall is expected to increase in both intensity and frequency.

"At the global scale, the intensification of heavy precipitation will follow the rate of increase in the maximum amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold as it warms (high confidence), of about 7% per 1°C of global warming." (Chapter 11, IPPC AR6)

I was curious as to whether this global prediction of a roughly 7% increase per ℃ in precipitation levels was borne out locally and nationally. Table 1 lists temperature and rainfall data from the Credenhill Weather Station, situated 3-4 miles away. I have used 30-year climate averages (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020) to smooth the (considerable) year-to-year variations in precipitation.

TABLE 1: Credenhill: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	9.44	656.8
1971-2000	9.76	673.2
1981-2010	9.95	664.9
1991-2020	10.25	695.5

The associated scatter plot (Figure 1) is shown below (Figure 1) ...

Using the regression equation (Rainfall = 42.8*Temperature + 251. R² = 0.76), a 1 ℃ rise in temperature produces a 42.8 mm rise in rainfall; equivalent to an average increase of 6.4 % per ℃ for the period covered by the data.

Repeating the process for another local weather station (approximately 15 miles away) at Ross-on-Wye; the data is presented in Table 2 and Figure 2.

TABLE 2: Ross-on-Wye: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	9.86	686.3
1971-2000	10.19	706.2
1981-2010	10.49	733.5
1991-2020	10.80	764.3

Again, from the regression equation (Rainfall = 83.6*Temperature - 141, R² = 0.988), rainfall in Ross-on-Wye has increased at an average rate of 8.6% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.

Data for another local weather station at Shobdon Airfield, approximately 15 miles away, are summarised in Table 3 and Figure 3.

TABLE 3: Shobdon Airfield: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	9.17	783.32
1971-2000	9.48	798.92
1981-2010	9.77	793.78
1991-2020	9.96	797.29

The slope of the regression line indicates a much smaller relative increase in rainfall with temperature. From the regression equation (Rainfall = 14.4*Temperature + 656, R² = 0.5), rainfall at Shobdon Airfield has increased at an average rate of 1.8% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.

In the final 3 examples, we look at much wider geographical areas, starting with the (English) Midlands. Table 4 and Figure 4 summarise the data. 

TABLE 4: Midlands, England: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	8.90	768.05
1971-2000	9.20	777.53
1981-2010	9.53	792.70
1991-2020	9.84	809.77

From the regression equation (Rainfall = 44.6*Temperature + 369, R² = 0.987), rainfall in the English Midlands has increased at an average rate of 5.7% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.

Temperature and rainfall data for England can be found here and is summarised in Table 5 and Figure 5.

TABLE 5: England: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	9.05	820.31
1971-2000	9.35	830.95
1981-2010	9.66	849.78
1991-2020	9.97	869.55

From the regression equation in Figure 5 (Rainfall = 54.3*Temperature + 326, R² = 0.985), rainfall in the England has increased at an average rate of 6.4% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.

And, finally, Table 6 and Figure 6 look at the temperature and rainfall relationship for the whole of the UK (data here).

TABLE 6: United Kingdom: Mean Annual Temperatures and Rainfall
Climate Period	Mean Annual Temperature (oC)	Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
1961-1990	8.34	1084.08
1971-2000	8.60	1111.69
1981-2010	8.88	1141.95
1991-2020	9.16	1162.70

From the regression equation in Figure 6 (Rainfall = 97*Temperature + 277, R² = 0.993), rainfall in the United Kingdom (UK) has increased at an average rate of 8.6% per ℃ during the 1961-2020 period.

Analysing real world data on a local, regional and countrywide basis, we can confirm the IPPC prediction of an expected 7% increase in precipitation with every 1 ℃ rise in temperature is correct. Some localities will be less (e.g. Shobdon Airfield), some will be more (e.g. Ross-on-Wye), but, in the end, it will be the physics that decides the global average value of 7%.